Fund Performance

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Market Commentary - October 2025

Global markets’ largely upbeat final scorelines in October belied some gnarly intra-month gyrations. Investors were rattled by more US-Sino tussling over tariffs, with President Trump announcing new 100% duties on Chinese goods after Xi Jinping restricted exports of its highly coveted rare earth metals. Meanwhile, most of the US government remained shut until further notice, including the purveyors of meaningful economic data.

Wall Street proved remarkably resilient, considering the US was on the receiving end of most of the market moving headlines. The implosion of a couple of large used car dealerships, plus a few wobbly regional banks sparked some concerned chatter. However, Trump and Xi’s highly-orchestrated rapprochement on trade later in the month turned frowns upside down.

Almost everyone and their dogs lamented overvalued tech stocks but continued to buy them. Nvidia set another eye-watering valuation milestone, becoming the world’s first $5 trillion company mere weeks after hitting the $4T mark. AMD bagged a multibillion-dollar GPU deal with OpenAI, with most investors shrugging off the inherent circularity of many of these arrangements.

The US Federal Reserve trimmed rates again at the end of the month. But Chair Jerome Powell immediately doused sentiment by warning that another cut was not a foregone conclusion, even adding a mic dropping: “Far from it.”

At home, the RBNZ was a tad more supportive, delivering a hoped-for-but-not-totally-expected 50-basis-point rate cut. Markets cheered the “front-loaded” move designed to inject some confidence in the dour Kiwi consumer. However, the party was short-lived as offshore weakness bled into local sentiment and inflation remained sticky at 3%. Elsewhere, the government’s proposed energy-sector shake-up sent gentailers surging; although, on balance, most local investors remained cautiously optimistic rather than outright giddy.

The ASX 200 managed a win, but only just, on the back of a month of mixed signals. Early enthusiasm over a new U.S.-Australia critical-minerals deal gave way to disappointment as China delayed its rare-earth export restrictions, denting resource stocks. To top it off, inflation came in hotter than expected, reviving the “higher for longer” chorus that markets had been hoping to silence.

Against this backdrop, the S&P 500 finished October up 2.3%, while the tech-focused Nasdaq rose 4.7%. The NZX 50 gained 1.9% over the month, while the ASX 200 eked out a 0.4% gain.

The FTSE 100 climbed 3.9%, its best showing in months. Inflation held steady at 3.8%, sparking hopes of another Bank of England rate cut before year-end. Sterling slid, gilt yields eased, and investors dared to dream that perhaps, just perhaps, the UK might end 2025 on a mildly positive note.

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